Report shows local greenhouse gas emissions rise after years of ineffective policy

REDLANDS, Calif. – A recent report on local greenhouse gas emissions reveals that Redlands' 2017 Climate Action Plan (CAP) has been ineffective in meeting local emission targets. 

The study found that the city has “not monitored progress since the 2017 CAP was prepared,” and emissions have risen 11% between 2015 and 2022.

Why it matters: The state of California has implemented new stricter guidelines for emission reduction by 2050. Already behind in current emission reduction goals, the city now faces the need for aggressive action to meet the state’s 2045 carbon neutrality goal.

Details: Mayu Tanaka, senior associate and project manager from Dyett & Bhatia, the consultants for the Redlands Climate Action Initiative, delivered the findings during a City Council meeting on Tuesday, July 2.

The report is part of the first phase of updating the city's CAP. 

The city's annual emissions increased from about 500,000 metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2015 (adjusted for changes in reporting tools) to approximately 556,000 in 2022, Tanaka reported.

This increase is equivalent to 13,000 gasoline-powered passenger cars driven on the road for one year.

"The total annual emissions have increased by about 11% since 2015," Tanaka said. "In per capita terms, this is an increase from about 7.1 metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent per capita in 2015 to 7.7 in 2022.” During this period, the population of Redlands increased by about 3,200 or 4.5%. 

Transportation contributed the highest amount to the rise in emissions, with 94,955 metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent annually in 2022, a 34% increase from 2015.

Wastewater contributed to the rise in emissions by 7,000 metric tons, a 115% increase. 

However, emissions for potable water, solid waste, and built environment all fell during the seven-year period. 

The strategies outlined in the 2017 CAP fell short of significant emission reductions. The General Plan policies outlined in the CAP focus on reducing car emissions by promoting biking and walking and providing incentives to increase the efficient use of land for parking. If all the measures outlined in the report were implemented, the report estimated that they would have resulted in a reduction of around 8,000 metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent per year.

Downward trend falling short: Tanaka reported that projections indicate a decrease in future emissions due to state-level actions already underway. These include all passenger vehicle sales being zero-emission by 2035 and regulations affecting heavy-duty truck emissions by 2045. 

"While the downward trajectory is moving in the right direction, it is falling short of the city's greenhouse gas reduction targets," she said.

A comparison between the targets adopted in the city's 2017 CAP and the city's projected trajectory shows that the city is not on track.

"This is especially true for 2050, which would need to be reduced from 4.9 to 1.0 metric tons per capita," explained Tanaka.

A new long-term target of 1.0 metric tons per capita by 2050 has been proposed to align with the state's 2045 carbon neutrality goal.

The plan's top priority is to address the transportation sector, which accounts for 66% of overall emissions. Strategies include promoting zero-emission vehicles, expanding charging station availability, and reducing vehicle miles traveled through carpooling and improved bike infrastructure.

What they're saying:  "Now the state criteria are much more strict. They expect cities to implement plans that really get down to one ton of emissions," said Richard Corneille, board member of Accelerate Neighborhood Climate Action, who attended a stakeholder meeting on July 25.

Corneille said the local climate action group is supportive of policies that reduce vehicle miles traveled, including pedestrian and bike infrastructure and denser housing developments to reduce urban sprawl.

Other priorities include a ZEV-friendly ecosystem, decarbonizing buildings through electrification, eliminating natural gas use, and increasing tree canopy to provide shade and reduce energy consumption.

"We're optimistic that it's going to be a robust plan this time rather than, like I said, it was more like business as usual because of the 2017 plan," Corneille said. "We feel we're being heard."

Moving forward: The city is actively seeking public input on the plan. A survey is expected this summer, and additional meetings are scheduled for the fall.

The draft plan is expected to be completed by the end of the year, with adoption slated for early 2025.